In an interview for TRIBUNA portal, the well-known political analyst Anatol Taranu spoke about how prepared were the main electoral contestants in the parliamentary elections, what conclusions can already be drawn about this election campaign, what surprises he thinks we might have in these elections, or if everything is predictable, how it appreciates the unionists’ performance, but also other aspects regarding the electoral campaign.
T .: How prepared were the main electoral contestants to these elections? Who, if we can say, did their homework well?
A.T .: We have three incontestable favourites in this electoral contest – the Socialists, the PD and the electoral bloc NOW. Socialists have the best electoral result. Their task is to not commit major mistakes in favour of the main electoral contestants – the Communists Party, the Our Party, the Shor and the PD Party. The Socialists launched themselves in the campaign, being well politically trained, with a major geopolitical capital, with appreciable media support and with lack of material and financial resources. The electoral bases of the socialists are voluminous, being represented by national minorities, with some insignificant exceptions, but also by a large number of followers of primitive Moldovenism – all together embracing the eastern geopolitical option.
Unlike the socialists, the Democratic Party, as a governing party, faces much greater difficulties at the electoral level. The geopolitical electoral capital of the PD Party is considerably destroyed by the pro-European opposition, plus the oligarchic force. And in the doctrinal plane, PD can hardly be appreciated as a party with a clear ideology. The power of the PD consists in the impressive administrative, material and media resources. The Party of Plahotniuc cannot win the election, but it can record enough results to control the future government. The main objective of the PD is to prevent the Socialists accumulating a number of mandates in Parliament that would make them a dominant force.
Regarding the Electoral Bloc NOW, he missed the chance to be the only pro-European opposition force, even if he is well appreciated on this electoral segment. The main rate of ACUM is represented by the unionists, who have not been able to generate a consolidated electoral project. The dramatic destruction of the pro-European and unionist flank equals their absence in the future government action.
T: What conclusions can already be drawn referring to this election campaign?
A.T.: We are only in the first phase of the campaign. The conclusions can only be preliminary. Television debates do not impress and may not have a major electoral impact in shaping voter options. But we still have time. If we are talking about the fairness of the campaign, we can mention the first serious violations. I am referring to the physical and verbal violence of some candidates, the most serious being the case of the independent candidate Boris Volosatâi, who recently happened in Băcioi.
T: What has surprised you so far in the behaviour of the main electoral actors?
A.T .: On the one hand, the cynism with which the rudimentary state of the political culture of many citizens is exploited, on the background of which infinite corruption develops – the case of Şor, being emblematic. On the other hand, inappropriate aggression and the talent of some electoral competitors to destroy their potential allies, which completely devalues the values of the civilization model they embrace in their own electoral programs.
T: Do you think we will have surprises in these elections or everything will be predictable?
A.T .: Unfortunately, we do not have much space for pleasant surprises. All hope is in the team of the unionist candidates in the uninominal constituencies.
T .: What role does the geopolitical factor play in this election campaign?
A.T .: Despite some erroneous calculations or some selfish interests to devalue the role of the geopolitical factor in these elections, it remains determinant. The attempt to substitute the geopolitical factor with the anti-oligarchic factor, while the fight with oligarchy certainly can’t be neglected, is a serious calculation error, which will be expensive in the election result for the protagonists of this idea. The anti-oligarchic struggle loses its meaning if Moldova moves into the Eurasian space where the oligarchy is at home. The high electoral rating of the socialists, which focuses the political campaign on the geopolitical factor, should serve as a wake-up call for the nihilists of right geopolitics in these elections.
T.: How do you qualify the unionists’ performance in this campaign?
A.T .: A total failure of the union leaders. The vertiginous growth in the last years of the number of followers of the unionist option wasn’t supported by qualitative changes in the political organization. Attempts to politically represent the Unionists through mediators, who claim the votes of citizens with Romanian identity in the Republic of Moldova without assuming a plenary and open the unionist option, are already largely compromised. Certainly, these are the last elections in the political history of the Republic of Moldova when the Unionists, on the whole, have no certainty with whom to vote.
T .: What can happen in the post-electoral period?
A.T.: A lot of political uncertainty, with attempts to marginalize the followers of the unionist option. High chances for early elections with cardinal repositioning of the political forces in the perspective of future elections with existential consequences for the Republic of Moldova.
T .: Who do you think will represent the future government?
A.T.: Most likely – a left-wing government with PD and PSRM participation, the latter as the second partner of government, regardless of the political rhetoric and the number of mandates accumulated. The second option – a PD minority government without longevity perspectives. Some experts do not exclude a PSRM governance encouraged by a part of the deputies from the electoral bloc NOW. None of the variants of governance doesn’t validate the probability of a good cardinal reformation of the state of work in the Republic of Moldova and make the anticipated election perspective realistic.
T: Thank you!
Trainee translator: Mihaela Grosu