The situation on the real estate market continues to raise concerns. Official data show that the number of real estate purchase and sale transactions in the first half of this year declined significantly compared with the same period last year. While 7,483 apartments were sold in the first half of 2025, only 5,493 were sold during the same period in 2026. In absolute terms, this means that 1,990 fewer apartments were sold in the first half of 2026 than in the corresponding period last year — a decline of 26.6%.

At the same time, claims that the real estate market is showing signs of recovery based on a comparison between the second and first quarters of this year are far from reality. The increase recorded in the second quarter compared with the first was driven by some buyers’ efforts to purchase property before the new cadastral values came into force. This dynamic cannot be considered a sustainable trend that will continue and gain momentum. On the contrary, an analysis of possible changes leads to far from optimistic conclusions.

According to information that has emerged in the public domain, a value-added tax (VAT) on the purchase of real estate directly from developers may be introduced starting in 2027. It is not yet known whether the new government shares the same position on this issue as its predecessor. However, if VAT is introduced, real estate prices will increase significantly. The increase may be less than 20%, since part of the VAT could be deducted through other commercial transactions, but prices will rise nonetheless.

The planned introduction of a carbon tax could also affect real estate prices. In Romania, estimates suggest that its implementation could lead to a 15–16% increase in real estate prices. In this context, the findings of the latest business survey published by the National Bureau of Statistics should also be taken into account. According to the survey, construction company managers expect the most significant increase in prices for construction works among all sectors of the national economy, with the balance of business expectations reaching +21%. This will inevitably affect the final cost of construction as well.

The introduction of new cadastral values for real estate in 2027 will also place significant pressure on the property market. According to official estimates, following the assessment and reassessment process, the cadastral value of properties increased approximately 2.9-fold. Accordingly, the amount of capital gains tax payable on real estate transactions will also increase. In addition, the state fee and notarial fees charged for processing such transactions will rise.

All these factors will restrain activity on the real estate market, primarily on the part of sellers. Therefore, from this perspective as well, a further decline in the key indicators of the real estate market should be expected.

Under the circumstances, I believe that the taxation of real estate transactions should become a separate topic for discussion and receive particular attention as part of the broader debates on fiscal and budgetary policy for next year. The real estate market is of major importance to the national economy and is closely interconnected with other key markets, particularly the construction sector. A further downturn could trigger a chain reaction with very serious socio-economic consequences.

Viorel Godea, General Director of Lagmar