The data for the second quarter of this year on loans issued by commercial banks in the Republic of Moldova have led some to declare that we are witnessing a “mortgage boom,” and the figures are indeed impressive. Thus, at the end of the second quarter, the outstanding balance of loans granted for the purchase of real estate was 28.3% higher than during the same period last year. In the second quarter alone, the volume of new loans granted to individuals for the purchase or construction of a property amounted to approximately 2.95 billion lei. This represents a 22.9% increase compared with the first quarter of this year. Overall, new mortgage loans accounted for 28.9% of all loans granted to individuals. Looking at the banking portfolio as a whole, loans for the purchase or construction of housing already account for 25.3%.

These figures should also be viewed in light of information on rising housing prices. Data from the National Bank of Moldova show that apartment prices in Chișinău are currently more than 130% higher than in 2019. At the same time, asking prices for homes in the capital have reached 230.5% of their 2019 level. For new housing, the figure has risen to 242.6%. Some experts also note that the second quarter brought the “first signs of a cooling market” — asking prices fell by 1.1% compared with the first quarter of this year. If this trend continues, it could stimulate an increase in the number of real estate transactions.

Speaking of real estate transactions, it should be noted that 5,493 apartments were sold during the first half of this year, 26.6% fewer than during the same period of 2025. Some consider this decline worrying, while others, comparing the first and second quarters of this year, point to a recovery in the real estate market. While 2,529 apartment transactions were recorded in the first quarter, the figure rose to 2,964 in the second quarter, representing a 17.2% increase. We will see whether this trend will continue during the second half of the year.

Overall, however, both the real estate market and the construction sector remain concerning. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, during the first half of the year, the volume of construction work decreased by 8.2% compared with the corresponding period of 2025, in comparable prices. By type of construction, in January–June 2026, compared with the same period of 2025, decreases were recorded in the volume of construction work performed on non-residential buildings — by 19.2%, engineering structures — by 3.4%, and residential buildings — by 2.8%.

Not only is the volume of construction work declining, but so is the number of building permits issued. In January–June 2026, 1,376 building permits were issued, a decrease of 0.5% compared with January–June 2025. It is true — and this is encouraging — that 3% more building permits were issued for residential buildings than during the same period last year. However, this indicator is strongly affected by the significant, nearly 10%, decline in the number of building permits issued for non-residential buildings.

Developments in the real estate and construction markets have a direct impact on gross domestic product. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, during the first half of this year, the construction sector had a negative impact of -0.5 percentage points on GDP, while the real estate market had an impact of -0.4 percentage points. Overall, during the period under review, construction accounted for 4% of GDP, while real estate transactions accounted for 8.7%.

Therefore, although some indicators for the construction and real estate markets are encouraging, the overall situation remains rather concerning. We will have to wait for the developments — or setbacks — in the second half of the year before drawing much more accurate conclusions.

Viorel Godea, General Director of “Lagmar”