Throughout the current year, the annual inflation rate will follow an upward trajectory, after which it will begin to decline starting in the first quarter of 2027 and continue decreasing until the end of the forecast horizon. The announcement was made by the Executive Board of the National Bank of Moldova (NBM), TRIBUNA reports.

According to the NBM, in the second quarter of 2026 the annual inflation rate will reach the upper limit of the target range, and for the following three consecutive quarters it will exceed this range. Beginning with the second quarter of 2027, inflation is expected to return within the target band, where it will remain until the end of the forecast period. Average annual inflation for 2026 and 2027 is projected at 7.0 percent and 5.8 percent respectively—an upward revision of 2.0 and 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous forecast.

The upward revision of the inflation outlook compared to the February 2026 Inflation Report is driven by expectations of higher international oil prices, persistently elevated global food prices, a higher trajectory of imported inflation in 2026, rising short‑term inflation projections influenced by second‑round effects from fuel price increases amid the conflict in the Middle East, as well as higher‑than‑anticipated actual inflation in the first quarter of 2026.

The institution also noted that, given expectations of the continuation of the war in the Middle East and the intensification of its adverse effects on international markets, the balance of risks associated with the current medium‑term inflation forecast remains tilted to the upside.