At the beginning of this year, I published an editorial examining the dynamics of construction permits issued over the past four years. With the exception of 2023, when a slight increase was recorded, the overall trend has been one of steady decline. In 2025, for the first time in recent years, the number of issued permits fell below 3,000, marking a 9% decrease compared to 2024. Data for the first quarter of 2026 show that the downward trend continues — yet several details suggest that something may be changing in the approach of the authorities responsible for this process. Let’s take a closer look.

Q1 2026: Slight overall decline, but notable regional differences

Between January and March 2026, authorities issued 586 construction permits, down 3.5% from the same period in 2025. Of these,

• 444 permits were for residential buildings (‑0.9%),
• 142 permits for non‑residential buildings (‑10.7%).

Despite the general decline, the regional breakdown reveals the potential shift mentioned earlier.

Residential permits: Declines everywhere except Chișinău

Compared to Q1 2025, the number of residential construction permits decreased in:

• South region: ‑10 permits (‑31.3%)
• UTA Gagauzia: ‑4 permits (‑9.5%)
• North region: ‑3 permits (‑7.3%)
• Center region: ‑1 permit (‑0.6%)

Meanwhile, Chișinău recorded an increase of 14 permits, up 8.3%.

Non‑residential permits: Mixed picture

For non‑residential buildings, the number of permits decreased in:

• Center region: ‑22 permits (‑37.9%)
• North region: ‑3 permits (‑7.3%)

But increased in:

• South region: +4 permits (+36.4%)
• UTA Gagauzia: +4 permits (+18.2%)

Chișinău remained unchanged.

Urban vs. rural: Demand is shifting

In Q1 2026 compared to Q1 2025:

• Urban areas saw a 1.9% increase in permits,
• Rural areas saw a 7.5% decrease.

This suggests that authorities may finally be aligning permit issuance with real demand, which is overwhelmingly concentrated in urban areas — especially in Chișinău.

Why Chișinău matters — and why the trend is noteworthy

Demand for both residential and non‑residential buildings is highest in the capital. Yet in recent years, the number of permits issued in Chișinău has been in continuous decline — including a 3.4% drop in 2025 — despite the city’s growing population and housing needs.

Between 2014 and 2024, the share of Chișinău residents in Moldova’s total population officially increased from 20% to 25%. Unofficial estimates suggest the real figure may be closer to one‑third. Add to this the influx of Ukrainian refugees, which some estimates say increased the city’s population by around 10% in recent years.

In this context, the persistent decline in construction permits for the capital was increasingly at odds with demographic reality. Only in the first quarter of 2026 do we finally see a reversal.

A real shift — or a temporary fluctuation?

It is too early to draw definitive conclusions. The Q1 data may signal a change in attitude toward issuing construction permits — or it may simply be a short‑term deviation. Only additional statistical data in the coming months will allow us to determine whether this is a genuine shift or merely an illusion.

Viorel Godea
General Director, Lagmar Construction Company