The candidates for MP in single-member constituency No. 38 Hâncești who have the biggest chances of winning are, in descending order, Ștefan Gațcan, of the Party of Socialists, independent candidate Grigore Cobzac, Olesea Stamate, of the Action and Solidarity Party, and Vitalie Balinschi, of the Shor Party, says a poll conducted in this constituency by Date Inteligente SRL (iData) during February 20-25.
In a news conference at IPN, iData executive director Mihai Bologan said the poll was carried out by phone and covered 100 respondents, being representative for the constituency. 13% of those polled would vote for Ștefan Gațcan, 11% for Grigore Cobzac, by 10% for Olesea Stamate and Vitalie Balinschi. The picture shows the winner will be chosen at a very small difference, but also with a small percentage.
The survey involved 20 experts who made forecasts as to the future winner of the elections in Hâncești. They assessed the chances of the seven candidates on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 means no chances of winning, while 5 means almost sure of winning. Grigore Cobzac (independent) and Ștefan Gațcan (PSRM) were given very good chances of winning, while Olesea Stamate (PAS) and Ion Mereuță, of the Democratic Party, were given relatively good chances. Dorin Chirtoac, of the UNION Movement, Vitalie Balinschi (PPȘ) and Anatolie Postolache, of the Liberal Democratic Party, have slim chances, according to the experts.
When asked to name one candidate with the biggest chances of winning, half of the experts mentioned Grigore Cobzac (independent). Ștefan Gațcan (PSRM) was named by 30% of the experts, Olesea Stamate (PAS) by 15% and Ion Mereuță (PDM) by 5%.
Mihai Bologan said the citizens were asked if they will go to the polls on March 15 and 86% of them said they will definitely go. 6% said they will probably go, 2% said they will probably not go, 1% said they will definitely not go, while 5% don’t know. “At least declaratively, the population is interested in elections and intends to take part in them. In reality, we know that the voter turnout is not very high,” he stated.
The experts anticipated that the voter turnout will be low. The official turnout is calculated according to the number of persons put on the rolls and this figure is very high and includes persons who no longer live in this constituency.
The experts were also asked about the eventual snap parliamentary elections. 65% said the probability for these to take place this year is low, while 25% said these are not at all likely. 10% said there are good chances of having snap elections in 2020. According to half of the experts, if snap parliamentary elections are held, the PSRM would win, while 45% said the PAS would win. Asked who would lose, 55% of the experts said the PDM, while 25% said the Party “Dignity and Truth Platform”.
Some 70% of the 20 interviewed experts consider the presidential elections this year would have runoffs. 5% believe the runoffs would not be needed, while 25% said these could be won by the first round. If the runoffs involved incumbent President Igor Dodon and PAS leader Maia Sandu, 60% of the experts consider the elections would be won by Igor Dodon.
The poll among experts was carried out during February 19-25.